Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist candidate backed by Poland’s conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, narrowly won the presidency in Sunday’s run-off election, defeating liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski with 50.89% of the vote, according to official results published early Monday.

Trzaskowski, an ally of pro-European Prime Minister Donald Tusk, garnered 49.11%, in what turned out to be one of the closest presidential races in recent Polish history. Nawrocki’s victory is expected to complicate Tusk’s reform agenda and marks a significant shift in Poland’s political balance just 18 months after PiS lost control of parliament.

“This will be a good counterweight to the government,” said former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, a leading figure in the PiS government ousted in 2023. Nawrocki, although technically running as an independent, was heavily supported by PiS.

According to Reuters, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem also openly endorsed Nawrocki last month, telling a conservative gathering in Poland that he “needs to be the next president.”

A person holds a placard with a message in support of Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, on the day of the second round of presidential election, in Warsaw, Poland, June 1, 2025. The placard reads: “Karol Nawrocki, Poles are with you, you will win”. REUTERS/Aleksandra Szmigiel

A 42-year-old amateur boxer and former head of Poland’s national remembrance institute, Nawrocki campaigned on a platform of prioritizing native Poles in social and economic policies, including controversial stances on refugees—especially those from neighbouring Ukraine. He framed the election as a referendum on Tusk’s centrist coalition government, which he has criticized for being too aligned with Brussels and liberal values.

While Poland’s president holds limited executive power, the office has veto authority over legislation, making the presidency crucial in the ongoing tug-of-war between Poland’s nationalist and liberal blocs.

Diverging Paths on Foreign Policy

Despite sharing support for Ukraine in its ongoing war with Russia, Nawrocki and Trzaskowski presented differing visions for Poland’s role in NATO and European security.

Both candidates agreed on increasing defense spending, aligning with U.S. President Donald Trump’s pressure on European allies to bolster their military capabilities. However, Nawrocki diverged sharply on the issue of Ukraine’s NATO accession. Unlike Trzaskowski, who views Ukraine’s membership as vital for Poland’s security, Nawrocki has said he would not ratify such a move, citing the risk of escalating conflict with Moscow.

His stance comes amid Russia’s continued insistence that NATO halt its eastward expansion—a key condition in ongoing diplomatic discussions over a potential peace deal with Kyiv.

Nawrocki’s presidency is likely to realign Poland with central European nationalist leaders such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico. His win may also embolden Czech eurosceptic leader Andrej Babis, who leads polls ahead of his country’s October election.

Domestic Divides and a Tumultuous Campaign

Trzaskowski, 53, campaigned on reinforcing democratic norms and easing Poland’s near-total abortion ban—policies in line with Tusk’s push to reverse what his government describes as erosion of judicial independence under the previous PiS administration.

Civic Coalition presidential candidate, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and his wife Malgorzata Trzaskowska react to the exit poll announcement of the second round of the presidential election, in Warsaw, Poland, June 1, 2025. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel

His initial claims of victory on Sunday were quickly overshadowed by late results swinging in Nawrocki’s favour. Trzaskowski’s camp did not immediately comment after the official figures were released.

The campaign itself was marked by personal attacks, especially targeting Nawrocki. Media reports alleged his involvement in violent football hooliganism and questionable real estate dealings, including the controversial acquisition of a flat from a pensioner. Nawrocki denied all accusations.

The first round of voting on May 18 had seen a notable rise in support for far-right, anti-establishment candidates, suggesting that the long-standing political duopoly of KO and PiS could be under strain.