Former US Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Bryen has warned that the downing of three Indian Rafale fighter jets by Pakistan’s Chinese-made Chengdu J-10 fighters on May 7 was very concerning for NATO, as the French aircraft is part of the alliance’s fleet.

Bryen – a leading expert in security strategy and a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and at the American Center for Democracy—claimed the negative outcome for the Rafale jets, considered a top fighter in the West, highlighted NATO might be trailing in technology against the Chinese.

The military and security pundit noted the implications of this aerial combat were far-reaching, as the Rafale fighter jets operate as a true multi-role aircraft, carrying out missions from air superiority and defense to close air support, deep strikes, reconnaissance, anti-ship operations, and even nuclear deterrence.

But he says the recent events suggest even such versatility may not be enough when facing modern Chinese missile technology.

Military observers, however, stress that an air force’s effectiveness depends not only on its platforms but also on its personnel — a point underscored in light of India’s continuing human resource challenges compared to Pakistan’s well-prepared defense apparatus.

Wednesday’s Clash: A Wake-Up Call

During a simulated one-hour aerial engagement on Wednesday, Indian Rafale jets were equipped with SCALP cruise missiles — the same type widely used in Ukraine — and MICA air-to-air missiles. The MICA, a reliable missile that has also strengthened the Hellenic Air Force since the early 2000s, unfortunately fell short in this scenario. At least one MICA missile was found near the crash site of a downed Rafale, raising concerns among analysts.

The encounter did not unfold in a close-range dogfight. Instead, it was a beyond-visual-range (BVR) engagement — a domain where the Rafale, despite its strengths, faced a distinct disadvantage.

Pakistani forces operated within their own airspace, launching Chinese-built J-10 fighters armed with PL-15 air-to-air missiles. These missiles are Beijing’s answer to the American AIM-120D AMRAAM: all-weather, BVR weapons capable of hitting targets at ranges of 200 to 300 kilometers. While exact specifications remain classified, the PL-15 reportedly travels at speeds approaching Mach 5 (over 6,000 km/h), far outstripping the French MICA’s range of just 60 to 80 kilometers.

According to defense expert Stephen Bryen, this technological gap likely shaped the outcome. The Chinese PL-15, optimized for long-range engagements, appears to have outperformed the MICA, which is more suited for close-to-mid-range battles.

More troubling still is the suggestion that the PL-15 may even challenge top-tier Western missiles like the AIM-120D AMRAAM — and perhaps even the Meteor, Europe’s most advanced BVR missile. While the Meteor boasts an exceptional “no-escape zone” and ramjet propulsion enabling sustained speed and agility, the recent encounter suggests that the PL-15 might match or even exceed its performance in real-world conditions.

Greece has incorporated 24 French Rafale fighters into its fleet of aircraft and is expecting to add the stealth US-made F-35 lightning.