A new scientific study has issued a stark warning about Greece’s climate future, predicting that the country will face significantly increased heat stress in the coming decades. The research, published in the journal Science of the Total Environment, was conducted by METEO, the weather and climate research unit of the National Observatory of Athens.

Using internationally recognized climate modeling, the study projects a notable rise in dangerous heat episodes across Greece between 2031 and 2060—posing growing risks to public health, especially during the summer months.

A Hotter, More Straining Future

The study is based on the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), a comprehensive measure of how heat affects the human body. Unlike basic air temperature readings, UTCI takes into account factors such as humidity, wind, solar radiation, and physiological responses—offering a more accurate picture of how oppressive heat feels and how it impacts health.

According to UTCI values:

  • 26–32°C signifies moderate heat stress,
  • 32–38°C is considered strong,
  • 38–46°C is deemed very strong,
  • and anything above 46°C is categorized as extreme, a level regarded as highly dangerous.

Two Emission Scenarios, One Trend

The research examined two future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios:

  • RCP 4.5, a moderate scenario where global emissions gradually decline,
  • and RCP 8.5, a more pessimistic pathway with continued high emissions.

Under both models, Greece is expected to experience a rise in average UTCI-based temperatures:

  • Between 1.0°C and 1.5°C under RCP 4.5,
  • And between 1.4°C and 2.0°C under RCP 8.5.

The most pronounced warming is projected for northern regions, the mountainous west, and the islands of the Ionian Sea and eastern Aegean. The summer season will be the most affected, with average heat stress levels increasing by 1.6°C (RCP 4.5) and 2.0°C (RCP 8.5).

More Days of Dangerous Heat

Perhaps most concerning is the expected spike in the number of days per year with high levels of thermal stress:

  • Strong heat stress days could increase by 6 to 21 days under RCP 4.5 and 7 to 27 days under RCP 8.5.
  • Very strong heat stress days may rise by up to 22 days under RCP 4.5 and 28 days under RCP 8.5.

Regions particularly vulnerable to these changes include western Greece, the Peloponnese, Thessaly, and areas around Athens.