Greek banks are set to unveil their fourth-quarter 2025 results starting Feb. 26, with announcements spanning two days. Piraeus Bank and Eurobank will report on the 26th, followed by Alpha Bank and the National Bank of Greece on the 27th.
According to Bank of America, following a strong re-rating in Jan. and a partial correction in Feb.—leaving the sector up 9.5% year-to-date—market attention is shifting to two key drivers: potential upgrades in earnings per share (EPS) through updated business plans, and enhanced shareholder capital returns, supported by improved capital quality.
The U.S. bank notes that quarterly figures are likely to take a back seat, despite expected improvements in net interest income—where the National Bank is expected to remain stable—and robust credit growth.
Banks are projected to exceed their 2025 targets, partly due to early implementation of 2026 infrastructure projects during Q4. Bank of America expects upcoming strategic plans, including the Capital Markets Days for Alpha Bank and Piraeus Bank, to reflect double-digit EPS growth across the sector.
This momentum is anticipated to stem from a roughly 5.5% annual average increase in net interest income over three years, fee growth exceeding 9% thanks to asset management and insurance activities, lower risk costs by 5–10 basis points, and moderate operating expense growth near 5% annually, despite higher technology investments. Strong profitability and the steady reduction of deferred tax credits are expected to allow Greek banks to raise distribution ratios in their guidance.
The National Bank is highlighted as a potential market standout, with its payout ratio forecast to rise to 65% in 2025—five percentage points higher than previously—and a special dividend estimated at 350 million euros.
From 2026 onward, Bank of America projects an annual payout increase of 10 percentage points, potentially reaching 95% by 2028, while maintaining a capital buffer for possible acquisitions.
Finally, Eurobank is identified as Bank of America’s top pick for 2026, driven by three key catalysts: the potential upgrade of Greece to a developed market, Bulgaria’s entry into the eurozone, and Cyprus joining the Schengen area.
