In a year marked by historic levels of global uncertainty, Greek small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have managed to keep their footing.
That is the central finding of the latest Survey of Greek SMEs and Confidence Index released by the Economic Analysis Division of the National Bank of Greece. The report examines how smaller businesses, which are the vast majority of Greek companies— have navigated escalating international risks, including the impact of tariffs introduced under the second Trump administration.
Greek SME Confidence Holds Firm
According to the survey, the overall business climate for Greek SMEs remained stable in the second half of 2025.
The SME Confidence Index edged up slightly to 17 points from 16 in the first half of the year, maintaining a significant distance above its historical average of the past decade. At the same time, 58% of businesses reported a growth-oriented strategy, up from 54% earlier in the year.
This resilience is notable given the broader global backdrop. In September 2025, the World Uncertainty Index surged to levels as much as 600% above its long-term average. Yet Greek SMEs continued to express positive expectations — a trend aligned with the improving Global Economic Climate Index over the course of the year.
The survey notes that the real-world impact of tariffs proved milder than initially feared. Agreements between states and precautionary stockpiling helped ease pressures, contributing to upward revisions of global GDP growth for 2025 to 3.3%, from 2.8% in April. Greek SMEs’ sales expectations improved gradually in parallel.
Still, not all businesses experienced the year equally. The gap between very small enterprises and larger SMEs widened. The smallest firms recorded declines in both confidence and growth expectations, underscoring their greater difficulty adapting to shifting global conditions.
Tariffs: A Contained Shock
While tariffs were a source of pressure, their effect on Greek SMEs was comparatively limited, especially when measured against the shocks of the past five years.
Only about one-third of businesses reported significant disruption from tariffs. That figure is far lower than the 82% of firms heavily affected during the 2021 energy crisis and below the 50% to 60% impacted by supply chain disruptions between 2020 and 2024.
For those companies that did feel the strain, the primary transmission channel was supply chain disruption. The overwhelming majority of affected firms — 83% — cited increased costs as the main issue, while just 17% reported effects on demand, whether direct or indirect.
The way businesses responded highlights the sector’s adaptability. A portion of firms (22%) chose active adjustment strategies, with some moving to strengthen competitiveness and others seeking new suppliers or customers. Another segment (15%) passed on higher costs, particularly among companies facing more intense pressure. However, the dominant approach, adopted by roughly two-thirds of the sector, was to absorb the additional costs by reducing profit margins.
By acting as a buffer in this way, SMEs effectively limited the broader spillover of tariff-related pressures into the Greek economy.
Financial Health and the Road to 2026
Despite pressure on margins resulting from widespread cost absorption, Greek SMEs appear largely unscathed in terms of financial health.
The share of firms facing acute liquidity shortages or operating in survival mode remains near a historic low of 10%, pointing to stable foundations built over years of navigating successive crises.
As 2026 begins against a backdrop of mounting economic and geopolitical risks, Greece’s SME sector appears to have both the flexibility to adapt and the build-in resilience after years of demanding conditions.
