Harold Macmillan has told us what poses the greatest threat to a government.
– “Events, dear boy. Events.”
Even seventy years later, there’s really nothing more to add. “Supermac” hit the nail on the head. After all, his own premiership fell victim to events, too.
So, truth be told, events—whatever they may be—will constitute the most serious threat to the government on its way to the ballot box.
The Greek Parliament presents a disheartening image. With its nearly sixty (!) independent MPs, its vegetative and disintegrating parties, with the eternal motion of its political nomads , and its dearth of parliamentary dialogue and/or scrutiny, it can barely be said to justify its own existence.
The party political landscape remains divided and fragmented. It acts more as a purveyor of instability—caught in a constant cycle of recycling and reshuffling—than an anchor of democracy.
Meanwhile, the government is showing all the wear and tear of an administration that is now well and truly into its eighth year. The honeymoon period is long over, and it has long since lost the innocence and clean hands of its youth.
Despite all that, the political balance of power does not seem to be shifting significantly. In all the recent polls that saw out this political season, New Democracy remains 10 to 14 percentage points ahead of its nearest rival, while Mitsotakis enjoys an even wider lead as the respondents’ preferred Prime Minister.
So what’s left to dent those leads? Events.
These fall into two categories. Expected developments, primarily in the progress of cases currently before the courts. Though, naturally, no one can second-guess the justice system.
And unpredictable developments—in the international arena, for instance, which Greece can merely observe. Even when its at their receiving end…
Usually, however, the road to the elections is built upon economic foundations.
Because whatever we may call the election’s ultimate stakes—whether it’s “political stability” or “political change”—it’s the economy we have in mind.
The Prime Minister’s latest statements have given the impression that the elections are not imminent, which leaves a little political wiggle room.
We’ll get a taste of that at the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF). But I strongly suspect that how much leeway we actually get will depend primarily on external factors, making any attempts at prediction risky at best.
A final point: the Cyprus Issue. We still don’t know whether the process promoted by the UN Secretary-General will move forward. But it’s far from certain that a pre-election period is the best timing for the Greek side.
Still, does is it also a threat? That would be a bold claim to make.
