Μake us preferred on Google Greece is heading toward another significant decline in births, with fewer than 1.4 million children expected to be born over the next 20 years, compared with 1.8 million between 2007 and 2026, according to research by demographer Byron Kotzamanis.
The projection, which assumes Greece does not record a positive net migration balance, highlights the scale of the country’s demographic challenge. Births have been declining steadily since the 1980s, and the trend is expected to continue despite a possible slowdown in some of the factors driving the decline.
Kotzamanis, a professor of demography at the University of Thessaly and director of the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies, outlined the findings in comments to the Athens-Macedonian News Agency (AMNA).
Births have fallen sharply over recent decades
Greece recorded an average of around 150,000 births annually during the three decades from 1951 to 1980. The number subsequently fell to approximately 100,000 a year in the 1990s. A modest recovery followed during the 2000s, but births then resumed their downward trajectory.
The total is expected to reach just 65,000 in 2026, according to Kotzamanis.
The decline predates the postwar period. Between 1932 and 1940, when Greece had a considerably smaller population, the country recorded an average of nearly 118,500 births annually. That figure rose to around 154,000 a year between 1955 and 1964.
The current decade is also expected to see a substantial reduction. Greece is projected to record fewer than 700,000 births between 2021 and 2030, compared with 920,000 in the previous decade, a decline of approximately 25%.
Kotzamanis said the long-term contraction reflects a gradual reduction in the number of children born to successive generations, a trend that began with generations born after the final decades of the 19th century.
Greece’s fertility decline differs from Western Europe
Falling fertility is not unique to Greece. Other developed countries have also experienced major changes in family size and reproductive behavior, although the timing and pace of these shifts have varied.
In Western and Northern Europe, fertility began declining among women born well before the end of the 19th century. The trend temporarily reversed among women born during the interwar period, who had more children than their parents — a development associated with the postwar baby boom. Fertility subsequently declined again among generations born after World War II.
These changes were accompanied by broader shifts in attitudes toward marriage, motherhood, sexuality, parenting and children’s education and socialization. Couples also increasingly adopted different approaches to balancing their individual goals and family life, Kotzamanis said.
Greece followed a different timeline. The decline in the number of children per couple began considerably later and has continued without a comparable reversal.
Women born in 1930 had an average of nearly 2.3 children, while those born in 1985 had fewer than 1.5, according to the study.
The gap between the number of children women in Greece have and the number they would like to have has also widened. Fertility has moved increasingly far below the replacement level of 2.07 children per woman, the rate needed to maintain a population without migration.
Family support and working conditions among key differences
Kotzamanis attributes part of the gap between Greece and several Western and Northern European countries to differences in the environment available to families.
He points to countries that have developed extensive family and child support systems, reduced gender inequalities and made it easier to combine employment with raising children. These countries also have broader and more effective welfare systems.
By contrast, successive generations in Greece have continued to have fewer children. Among generations born between 1945 and 1985 in the European countries cited by the researcher, women had between 1.8 and 2.0 children on average — a figure much closer to both their desired family size and the replacement level.
Birth numbers could fall further after 2046
The decline in births is expected to continue even as some demographic pressures begin to ease.
Kotzamanis said the decrease in the number of women aged 25 to 44 is expected to slow in the coming years. The rise in the already high average age at childbirth may also decelerate, as may the decline in fertility among younger generations.
Nevertheless, fewer than 1.4 million births are projected between 2027 and 2046, provided Greece does not have positive net migration, compared with 1.8 million in the previous 20-year period.
The outlook for the following two decades is even more concerning. A smaller generation will be reaching childbearing age, as the number of births in Greece fell by 45% between 2009 and 2026, Kotzamanis noted.
The smaller size of these generations is expected to further reduce the number of births in the years that follow.
