Greece’s ruling New Democracy party is drawing cautious optimism from the latest polling numbers, even as the government navigates one of its most turbulent periods since it came to power in 2019.

Advisers to Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis have been poring over rolling internal surveys that go beyond headline numbers, examining specific voter characteristics. What they found was better than what they expected.

A lead that holds

The standout finding: New Democracy maintains a lead of more than 15 percentage points over PASOK, with all other parties trailing further behind. For a government deep into its second term — a point at which ruling parties have historically begun to show serious signs of voter fatigue — aides consider that margin a sign of resilience.

That resilience, according to government officials, is particularly significant given the backdrop. A string of scandals that have plagued New Democracy and the administration, combined with the visible economic strain caused by the Iran conflict, has created what government insiders describe as an “entirely negative backdrop.” It has already cost New Democracy 2 to 3 percentage points in voting intention.

“Endurance,” one senior aide noted, is the name of the game and the foundation on which the party hopes to build a strategy aimed at securing a third consecutive majority government, despite acknowledging that this aspiration would be a momentous and difficult feat.

Mitsotakis leads on the key question

A second finding bolstered the mood at Maximos Mansion: Mitsotakis continues to lead decisively on the question of who is best suited to serve as prime minister, a metric that is being interpreted as a reflection of who the majority of Greeks want at the helm of the country. That finding, according to government officials, carries particular weight given that there are those who, behind the scenes, are quietly drawing up political scenarios in which New Democracy falls short of an outright majority, forcing the formation of a coalition government but with someone other than Mitsotakis as prime minister.

Government officials were quick to point out that a strong popular mandate, reflected in actual vote totals on election day, is difficult to challenge or bargain away. They also noted the notably weak showing of PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis, who ranks near the bottom of leadership approval ratings. Government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis recently made the same point publicly.

The “gray zone” and two new parties

The most complex finding, and the one generating the most internal debate, concerns what strategists are calling the “gray zone,” a growing pool of voters who express dissatisfaction with the government but decline to name a preferred party.

Adding to the picture is the resilience shown by Elliniki Lysi, the far-right populist party led by Kyriakos Velopoulos. Prime ministerial advisers are keeping a close eye on the party’s momentum, which appears to be gaining ground in regions such as Macedonia and the Peloponnese, where its nationalist appeal is proving particularly potent. The party threatens to peel away voters from New Democracy’s right flank.

Adding to the uncertainty is the anticipated launch of two new political parties: one led by former prime minister Alexis Tsipras, who previously led the left-wing SYRIZA party and governed Greece from 2015 to 2019, and another by Maria Karystianou, a prominent figure in the ongoing campaign for justice over the deadly 2023 Tempi train collision, which killed 57 people, including Karystianou’s daughter.

Early polling, conducted using standard survey methodology, suggests that support for these two emerging parties could reach double digits, numbers that would meaningfully reshape the political landscape in the final stretch before the election.

Until both parties are formally established and enter the race, the full picture of where those disaffected voters will land remains unclear. The initial read at Maximos Mansion is that the two new parties will not capture all of those adrift voters. At the same time, the government is already working on a plan to win back supporters who have only temporarily turned away.

War as a stabilizer

In an unexpected twist, government officials have assessed that the broader international crisis stemming from the Iran war may not hurt New Democracy’s electoral prospects. In times of geopolitical uncertainty, voters tend to gravitate toward stability and experience in governance, a dynamic that benefits the incumbent.

For now, Maximos is watching and waiting. The moment both new parties are officially up and running, the government expects the polling picture to shift considerably, and it is only then that the true shape of the race, and the scale of the challenge ahead, will come into focus. What gives them confidence is the advantage of being in power. They believe that a platform built around economic support for households, combined with a message of steady leadership in turbulent times, is enough to claw back lost ground before election day.