Scientists say the asteroid 2024 YR4 will safely pass near the Moon, easing earlier concerns that it could collide with Earth’s natural satellite and potentially create debris that might disrupt satellites.

The asteroid was first detected in December 2024 using a telescope located in the desert of Chile. Initial calculations suggested a 3.8% probability that it could collide with the Moon in 2032.

Those early estimates were based on observations from several telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope.

New observations rule out collision

More recent scientific observations have now significantly reduced the risk. Researchers say the asteroid—estimated to be about the size of a ten-story building—will pass the Moon at a distance of more than 20,000 kilometers.

While a direct collision would not have posed a danger to Earth, scientists had noted that debris from such an impact could potentially interfere with satellites used for navigation and communications.

“The Moon is safe,” scientists say

Astronomers had initially expected that the asteroid’s exact orbit might remain uncertain until 2028, when it would again become easier to observe from Earth. However, an international team of scientists identified two five-hour observation windows in February, allowing the James Webb telescope to detect and track the object.

“The Moon is safe, 2024 YR4 is not a danger, but the work continues,” the European Space Agency said following the new findings.

Colin Snodgrass, a professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, noted that while such a collision would have been scientifically interesting, it was not something scientists would want to test in reality given the potential risks from debris.