The International Federation of Professional Footballers (FIFPRO) is raising fresh concerns about this year’s World Cup, following the publication of a study warning of dangerously high temperatures during the tournament.
An analysis by the scientific team World Weather Attribution estimates that roughly one quarter of the 104 matches to be held across the United States, Canada, and Mexico are likely to take place under conditions that exceed FIFPRO’s safety thresholds. Around five matches are projected to potentially face postponement due to unsafe conditions.
Risk levels are estimated to be double those recorded during the 1994 World Cup in the United States, the researchers noted.
The study examined match venues and kick-off times and calculated the “Wet Bulb Globe Temperature” (WBGT), an index that measures how easily the human body can maintain a stable temperature. In addition to air temperature, WBGT also factors in humidity, solar radiation intensity, and wind, all of which affect how efficiently the body cools itself through sweat evaporation.
FIFPRO’s medical director Vincent Gouttebarge stated that the study’s projections are in line with calculations published by FIFPRO in 2023. “The estimates justify the implementation of a range of mitigation strategies aimed at better protecting the health and performance of players when exposed to high-temperature conditions,” he said.
FIFPRO recommends that protective measures be introduced when the WBGT exceeds 26 degrees Celsius, and calls for matches to be postponed when it surpasses 28 degrees, which roughly corresponds to an air temperature of 36 degrees in low-humidity conditions and 30 degrees in high-humidity environments.
FIFA told Reuters it has developed a risk management plan that includes measures such as three-minute hydration breaks in each half, cooling infrastructure for fans and players, adjusted work-rest cycles, and enhanced medical readiness. “FIFA is committed to protecting the health and safety of players, referees, fans, volunteers, and staff,” the world governing body stated.
Chris Müllington, an anesthesiologist at Imperial College London, suggested that high temperatures are more likely to affect player performance than to trigger genuine medical emergencies. “It will be more of a performance issue than a health issue,” he said. “Players are high-performance athletes and they will have acclimatized. You will see players self-regulating their pace. Behavioral thermoregulation is very difficult to override.” He added that this could ultimately translate into “more conservative football.”
Three of the 16 match venues are air-conditioned, but more than a third of the games at risk of exceeding the 26-degree WBGT threshold are scheduled to be played in open-air stadiums, including those in Miami, Kansas City, New York, and Philadelphia.
Among those matches is the final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, which faces a 12% probability of exceeding the 26-degree WBGT threshold and a 3% probability of reaching 30 degrees.
Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and head of World Weather Attribution, said the findings highlight the need for FIFA to reconsider when future tournaments are scheduled, particularly in warm regions. “From a health perspective, it would be preferable to hold them either earlier or later in the year, so that we have a football celebration rather than something that endangers the health of an entire city,” she said.
