President Trump said Saturday that a draft framework to shape future end-of-war talks with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz is near “finalization.”
Trump said the pact’s terms are “largely negotiated” and would be revealed shortly. His statement followed Saturday calls with Middle Eastern leaders and a separate conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu .
The agreement, if completed, wouldn’t achieve Trump’s main goal of preventing Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon. But it would prevent the restart of a war Middle Eastern countries didn’t want and begin to alleviate a global economic crisis spurred by Iran’s closure of the waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply flows.
Trump has told aides and counterparts that he reserves the right to resume attacks on Iran should Tehran fail to abide by the temporary accord, U.S. officials said.
“An agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran,” and mediating nations, Trump said on Truth Social, his social-media platform. “In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.”
Trump had repeatedly promised to deliver an agreement which would impose stricter controls on Iran’s nuclear program than the 2015 nuclear deal he pulled the U.S. out of in 2018. That included at least 15-year caps on the amount and purity of enriched uranium Tehran could produce.
The White House also sought caps on Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for regional militant groups—issues of importance to Israel and America’s Middle Eastern partners. People familiar with talks said they are unlikely to be clearly addressed in the framework deal.
The framework Trump is on the precipice of accepting would give the U.S. and Iran 30 days to reach a final pact, though the timeline could be extended another month if needed, officials from the U.S. and mediating nations said. The spokesman for Iran’s negotiating team, Esmail Baghaei , earlier on Saturday said the 30- to 60-day time frame was reasonable.
Both sides got on the same page after Trump on Saturday afternoon spoke with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain. Trump then spoke with Netanyahu, who has long opposed diplomacy with Iran.
Iran has long been pressing for a framework that would begin with an agreement to end the war and lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports while Iran would temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz and waive transit fees as long as negotiations continue. Iran wants swift unfreezing of assets held abroad under U.S. sanctions and is insisting an agreement encompasses a more permanent cease-fire in Lebanon, officials say.
Iran has around $100 billion in assets frozen abroad, according to former U.S. officials and experts.
The nuclear issue remains the greatest sticking point. Washington wants the ultimate pact to include Iranian commitments for a long suspension of its nuclear program, potentially for 20 years, and a pledge to hand over its stockpile of near weapons-grade material to the U.S. Iran has balked at those conditions and said the nuclear issues should be addressed at a later stage, alongside broader sanctions relief.
“Trump has to decide between the uncertainty of escalation, and the certainty he will be criticized for taking a weak deal,” said Dan Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel and adviser in negotiations with Iran. “No one has any idea which he will choose.”
Saturday’s initial announcement didn’t immediately answer several important questions, including whether Iran is offered some kind of oil sanctions relief during the negotiations, whether the two-month period is extendible if talks are making progress and how much the agreement will restrict Israel’s room for action in the region.
A key test for any final deal will be whether Iran accepts permanent curbs on its nuclear program and whether the White House is willing to lift primary U.S. sanctions on Iran, including terrorism-related penalties on Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Those steps could be vital to an agreement delivering the kind of economic benefits for Tehran its stalled economy badly needs.
“I think the key measure of success is whether navigation through the Strait of Hormuz returns to the status quo antebellum and at what price,” said Michael Singh, a former U.S. National Security Council director for Iran. “Iran’s nuclear program is at its lowest ebb this century, so the real question is what more can be achieved and is it worth the concessions and trade-offs involved.”
Many of Trump’s political allies openly urged Trump to resume strikes on Iran instead of making diplomatic concessions.
“If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived” as a dominant regional force, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) said in a social-media post.
The war isn’t officially over and could resume if either the U.S. or Iran deem that the detailed negotiations have failed.
U.S. troops and military assets, including dozens of tankers, which would be used for any strikes against Iran, remain stationed in Israel. Israeli officials have been pushing for a resumption of strikes against Iran and had been signaling some optimism in recent weeks, though they noted they were waiting for Trump’s green light.
There is widespread concern about the emerging deal in Israel.
Israel isn’t a party to the negotiations with Iran, and has at times found itself frustrated by the lack of updates on the talks. Before the April cease-fire, Israel wasn’t happy that it got word that a deal was finalized at a late stage and wasn’t consulted, The Wall Street Journal previously reported .
Write to Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com and Alexander Ward at alex.ward@wsj.com
