The climate phenomenon El Niño has officially emerged, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which warns that there is a significant possibility of a very strong episode developing between November and January.

NOAA estimates a 63% chance that El Niño will become particularly intense during that period, potentially making it one of the strongest events recorded since monitoring began in 1950.

El Niño is known for influencing weather conditions around the world, with possible consequences including droughts, floods and record-breaking temperatures.

What is El Niño and why does it matter?

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon caused by a rise in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, near the Equator.

This warming affects global atmospheric systems, altering wind patterns, pressure systems and rainfall distribution across different regions of the planet.

The phenomenon usually reaches its peak toward the end of the year, although every episode has its own characteristics. Strong El Niño events often follow similar patterns, including drought conditions in parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disruptions to monsoon patterns in India, and major rainfall changes in tropical regions.

Possible effects on global temperatures

The heat stored in the oceans can remain for an extended period, contributing to further increases in global temperatures during the following year.

This has raised concerns among meteorologists that 2027 could potentially surpass the current record for the hottest year ever recorded.

NOAA says climate scientists are becoming increasingly confident that the current El Niño event could become a strong one.

“The odds strongly favor a moderate to strong episode, or possibly a strong to potentially unprecedented one,” Carlo Buontempo, director of the European climate monitoring service Copernicus, told AFP.

Scientists will continue monitoring the development of the phenomenon and its potential effects on global weather patterns in the coming months.