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It is one of those rare instances where folk wisdom aligns perfectly with the political calendar: once August arrives, winter is on its way…

There is no doubt, then, that the Prime Minister will come back from his vacation with an electoral scenario in mind.

And a scenario including not just the “when,” but also the “how”.

Obviously, he will need to review the initial polling data—which will likely hold no surprises—and sit down with his economic team to finalize the economic package he’ll be announcing at the Thessaloniki International Fair.

But the crucial thing is that he will also need to formulate a convincing answer to the question “Why”? Why a third four-year term?

Simply arguing “there’s no one else” is a cop-out, and also ceases to apply the moment an alternative appears.

Political history is full of prime ministers who lost elections unexpectedly to clearly inferior opponents.

The great Winston Churchill, despite winning World War II, was defeated in the 1945 election by Clement Attlee, of whom Churchill himself jokingly said: “An empty taxi pulled up outside Ten Downing Street, and Clement Attlee got out.” So let’s be honest. No election is a foregone conclusion.

And the upcoming elections are as wide open as any others.

That said, though, every electorate comes with its own unique history. Political dominance, or even influence, is not built out of nothing.

So, the political landscape is not radically different from 2023.

Except the government is more fatigued. And the opposition is more fragmented, perhaps even a little more cartoonish.

A newly-minted party leader posted mid-summer: “Here on Naxos again this summer to yell the self-evident to the heavens: Freedom for Palestine” (Rena Dourou, August 10).

What does Naxos have to do with freedom for Palestine? Absolutely nothing. The most likely explanation is that the leader simply happened to be vacationing on Naxos.

Given this reality, and barring any unforeseen upheaval, there’s a risk the taxi will keep pulling up disappointingly empty.

And in that case, we risk an election that, far from being a clash between specific, coherent plans for governing the country, becomes a dogfight among second- and third-tier politicians hurling coffeehouse nonsense at one another.

Still, this does not absolve the Prime Minister of his obligation to provide a convincing, appealing answer to why he is seeking a third four-year term.

He may not be under threat from an empty taxi, but who knows what might happen if someone arrives on foot.