There’s an 80% chance the world will break at least one annual heat record within the next five years, significantly increasing the risk of extreme droughts, floods, and wildfires, according to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

For the first time, data also suggests a small but growing likelihood that before 2030, the planet could experience a year that is 2°C warmer than pre-industrial levels—a milestone scientists have described as “shocking.”

After the hottest decade on record, the WMO’s latest update warns that human health, economies, and ecosystems face increasing risks unless the world quickly ends reliance on oil, gas, coal, and deforestation. The report says there’s a 70% chance global temperatures from 2025 to 2029 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

This would bring the world close to breaching the Paris Agreement’s toughest target, regarding climate change, though the treaty uses 20-year temperature averages.

More alarmingly, the report shows an 86% chance the 1.5°C limit will be exceeded in at least one of the next five years, up from 40% in 2020. In 2024, global temperatures surpassed 1.5°C annually for the first time—an outcome once considered unlikely before 2014—and last year was the hottest in 175 years of records.

“It’s shocking that 2°C now seems plausible,” said Adam Scaife of the UK’s Met Office, who played a key role in compiling the data. The chance of this happening in the next five years is only 1%, but it will increase as the planet warms, he stressed.

Rising temperatures will affect regions unevenly: Arctic winters will warm 3.5 times faster than average, the Amazon will face more droughts, and areas like South Asia, the Sahel, and Northern Europe may experience more rainfall.

Leon Hermanson of the Met Office, lead editor of the report, added that 2025 is likely to be among the three hottest years ever recorded. Meanwhile, Chris Hewitt, Director of Climate Services at the WMO, emphasized that it’s not too late to act: “We must take climate action,” he said. “1.5°C is not inevitable.”