If every setback hides an opportunity, then the Trump administration may represent a chance for Europe.
On the political level first. For better or worse, Euro-Atlantic unity has lost its momentum. From now on, the two sides will have to look out for themselves.
Especially if the global economy’s post-war system is subjected to a shock test in the months ahead.
And then in terms of defense. Europe cannot complacently play the superpower anymore with someone else footing the bill; the US has made it crystal clear it will no longer be picking up the tab.
It’s equally clear the erstwhile partners will be looking after number one here.
Fortunately, our best response in both these spheres is the same—indeed, a virtual foregone conclusion. The solution is more Europe.
Only more Europe can successfully replace the Euro-Atlantic axis as it becomes a thing of the past.
And more Europe is the only route to the strategic autonomy that is both the aim of, and a precondition for, an actual European superpower.
Of course, none of this is going to happen in the next twenty-four hours. It will take time, meaningful negotiations and, of course, resources.
What is certain, however, is that the days of someone else paying the bills are over. And that we absolutely need a new architecture.
No one is under any illusions anymore about the relationship between the European Union and the United States—under the current US administration, at least. Nor does anyone really believe that European defense can be ensured by non-European actors.
Europe will be free of illusions, at least, as it takes its place at the decision-making table. It has to find solutions that it can implement and uphold itself.
Needless to say, the negotiations will be taking place on multiple levels.
At the level of NATO, which was the main pillar of European defense till now, and will certainly emerge with a new structure.
But also at the level of the European Union, where defense issues had been effectively off the table since the 1950s, when an attempt to create a European Defense Community failed.
The formation of a government in Germany within the next 24 hours will obviously prove a stabilizing factor.
Of course, I don’t have to point out the importance of the negotiations for Greece.
Mainly because the new architecture being sought raises issues concerning Europe’s borders, and countries such as Turkey.
In any case, even if only in geographical terms, Greece is in the vanguard of Europe. And it will certainly remain there.
There’s no denying that there have been a lot of setbacks. But at least the possibility of an opportunity for the European Union as a whole has opened up.
Now let’s hope it doesn’t go to waste.
