Μake us preferred on Google The year 2029 is emerging as a pivotal milestone for NATO, as the alliance prepares for the possibility of a military confrontation with Russia, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to leave the White House, and Moscow is projected to have recovered a significant portion of its military capabilities.
For Europe, these converging developments raise a fundamental question: Can it guarantee its own security without taking American military support for granted?
Uncertainty over Washington’s future commitment to European security has intensified calls for greater European defense autonomy. The goal is to strengthen deterrence against Russia while preparing for the possibility of an attack on NATO’s eastern flank.
The 2029 deadline featured prominently at the alliance’s summits in The Hague in 2025 and Ankara in 2026. The ambitious targets approved by NATO cover a broad range of military capabilities, from logistics and aerial refueling to long-range strikes, space operations and intelligence. Discussions launched in recent weeks have also introduced additional requirements.
Through its NATO Defense Planning Process (NDPP), the alliance determines which operations it must be capable of conducting simultaneously, what military capabilities are needed and how responsibilities should be distributed among member states. Greece has a significant role in these plans, with the northern port of Alexandroupolis serving as a key route for reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank.
NATO’s five-step defense planning process
The NDPP consists of five stages: establishing doctrine, identifying military requirements, assigning specific commitments to each ally, supporting implementation and assessing progress.
Several elements remain under negotiation. One issue is whether to reduce the requirement for 18 additional crisis-management brigades, freeing up more forces for the defense of allied territory in a potential high-intensity conflict.
The talks also cover drones, artificial intelligence and conventional capabilities that support nuclear deterrence.
The biggest challenge, however, remains the American military presence in Europe. Washington is pressing European allies to assume a greater share of the burden, but a reduction in U.S. forces could leave serious gaps in critical operational capabilities that would be difficult to replace quickly.
Europe’s defense industry must also ensure that it can produce enough weapons and equipment to sustain prolonged military operations. NATO’s commitment to raise defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product by 2035 does not guarantee that the alliance’s operational shortfalls will be resolved by 2029.
NATO’s strategy for deterring Russia
NATO’s approach to Russia was summarized in three words by Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the alliance’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, at the Warsaw Security Forum: “Block, Blunt, Break.”
Grynkewich stressed that a conflict with Russia is neither inevitable nor imminent, with deterrence remaining the preferred option.
If NATO were attacked, the first priority would be to halt the enemy’s advance, prevent the seizure of allied territory and, if necessary, strike Russian supply lines and command centers.
Deep strikes against a nuclear power such as Russia, however, carry the risk of escalation. This makes the early detection of Russian force buildups particularly important, including through satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles.
For now, Russian activity is being manifested primarily through sabotage, cyberattacks and espionage operations. The European Union is advancing a strategy known as “pursue and protect,” which combines efforts to dismantle hostile networks involved in hybrid threats with measures to safeguard critical infrastructure.
Russia’s new ambassador to Athens
Against this backdrop, the appointment of Yuri Gorlach as Russia’s new ambassador to Athens has drawn particular attention. Gorlach previously served as Russia’s deputy permanent representative to NATO and headed the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Crisis Management Center.
His appointment has reinforced assessments that Moscow may be seeking to monitor NATO’s southeastern flank more systematically, with particular attention to allied military shipments passing through Greece.
“Moscow is likely seeking more systematic monitoring of NATO’s southeastern flank, with an emphasis on allied military transport through Greece,” a well-informed source told To BHMA.
Alexandroupolis is a major gateway for moving military equipment toward Eastern Europe. The port is also included in plans for a European “military Schengen area,” intended to reduce bureaucratic obstacles and improve critical transport infrastructure.
The port features on a list of strategic hubs alongside Antwerp, Bremerhaven, Gdansk-Gdynia, Narvik and Esbjerg.
Greece expands its military space capabilities
Greece is also investing in space-based capabilities to strengthen its military readiness, with plans to acquire 16 additional satellites.
The planned system comprises one geostationary satellite for military communications, three telecommunications satellites, six electro-optical observation satellites, three satellites designed to collect intelligence from electronic emissions and three synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites. The radar satellites would allow military installations and movements to be monitored at night and through dense cloud cover.
Secure military communications are a particular priority. Greece plans to integrate the geostationary satellite, which will serve as an information hub, into C5ISRT-T, an integrated command, control, intelligence, surveillance and targeting system developed with Greek source code.
A source familiar with the program told TO BHMA that details about the systems’ operational readiness and activation schedules are not being made public for national security reasons.
The value of satellite capabilities lies in both the information they collect and the speed with which it can be transmitted and analyzed. Ideally, radar imagery, optical images and electronic signals would be combined and assessed using artificial intelligence, a process known as AI fusion.
Even an estimated seven-minute satellite pass over an area of military interest could prove valuable if the resulting data is processed in time. The capabilities are intended primarily to serve Greece’s national requirements while complementing its cooperation with NATO.
France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain and Poland already possess or are developing comparable capabilities. France and Germany are also working on mechanisms to share satellite data.
Protecting satellites and maintaining communications
Protecting space-based assets is becoming increasingly important. On the day Russia invaded Ukraine, a cyberattack on the KA-SAT satellite network disrupted communications in Ukraine and other European countries.
There is also concern over Russian satellites approaching Western satellites in orbit.
Following the example of the United States, European countries are therefore seeking to establish satellite constellations consisting of multiple spacecraft. Such networks would help maintain communications and other critical services even if some satellites were disabled.
Greece is contributing to European efforts by hosting one of the two permanent ground stations for the European secure military communications program. The country is also preparing to inaugurate a Space Operations Command.
The test facing NATO by 2029
By 2029, NATO will face a critical test: whether it has managed to close its military capability gaps, not simply by acquiring more weapons, but by improving its ability to detect threats early and respond quickly.
The challenge extends beyond military spending. It involves ensuring that the alliance can sustain operations, protect its communications and intelligence networks, and coordinate its forces in a rapidly changing security environment.
As uncertainty over future U.S. commitments persists and Russia seeks to rebuild its military strength, Europe — including Greece — is being called upon to assume greater responsibility for its own defense.
