President Trump has put off a major escalation of his military campaign against Iran amid efforts to revive diplomacy to open the Strait of Hormuz and a debate over the impact of declining munitions stocks, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter.
The U.S. military had been poised Friday to launch an intensive series of strikes against Iran, which could have lasted up to two weeks, the officials said.
But the operation was delayed so diplomacy could proceed and as officials discussed the effect a major attack could have on the U.S.’s shrinking stocks of Patriot and other air defense interceptors. The president could still order an attack, officials said, noting that the situation remains fluid.
The White House has been informed of the declining inventories of air defense interceptors by Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, officials added. The issue is a concern for Caine, who believes that the low inventories wouldn’t preclude a resumption of major combat operations against Iran, but would add to the risk, the officials added.
A spokesman for Caine said he wouldn’t discuss the chairman’s confidential advice to the president.
Several officials said Adm. Brad Cooper, who leads Central Command, believes the U.S. can cope with the limited stocks of Patriot and other air defense interceptors because stepped-up U.S. strikes, if they are approved by Trump, would blunt Iran’s ability to launch large numbers of missiles. A spokesman for Central Command declined to comment on Cooper’s planning.
Trump denied that dwindling munitions are a problem, insisting in a statement to The Wall Street Journal that “we have far more munitions than anyone in the world, and far more than we need.”
At the same time, the White House said national security would be at risk if news organizations reported updated U.S. government figures on Patriot and Thaad missile expenditures showing the high number of interceptors that have been used since the war began.
Analysts outside the government have repeatedly cautioned that the large number of antimissile interceptors that have been used to intercept Iranian missile attacks could hamper the U.S.’s ability to deter adversaries around the globe, including China.
“The diminished munitions stockpiles have created a near-term risk,” said an April report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies by Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel, and Chris Park, a research associate at the think tank. “A war against a capable peer competitor like China will consume munitions at greater rates than in this war.”
That report covered the seven key munitions that had been used in the war with Iran. Cancian and Park, who have updated their April assessment, said in an interview Sunday that they now estimate that at least 1,500 Patriot interceptors have been expended since the war with Iran began. That would leave a U.S. inventory of less than 1,000 Patriot interceptors, they added.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt and Sean Parnell, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman, insisted the military has everything it needs for any mission Trump chooses.
The continued threat posed by Iran’s missiles was underscored last week when three Iranian ballistic missiles struck a base in Jordan , including one that hit a housing area for American servicemembers at the base. Three U.S. soldiers were killed in the attack.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that most of the missiles that were directed at the base were shot down. Other U.S. officials have said that Iran’s missile force is using different flight paths, maneuvers and speeds, which is challenging U.S. defenses and increasing the use of antimissile interceptors.
Gulf states have also drained many of their antimissile interceptors, which has become a concern for the Pentagon, according to U.S. officials.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said previously that Iran’s missile program is “functionally destroyed.” But U.S. and Israeli officials familiar with intelligence estimates said in April that Iran still has thousands of ballistic missiles in its arsenal that it could use by retrieving launchers from underground storage areas.
The New York Times reported Saturday about Trump’s plans to hold off on a major military operation and Caine’s concerns over munitions stocks.
Expectations that the U.S. was on the cusp of a major offensive were raised last week when Trump said he was considering a major attack. Cooper had prepared a number of options, including an intensive campaign that could last 10 to 14 days, officials said. The U.S. military began to move aircraft and weaponry to the region.
But on Friday, Trump signaled that diplomacy had re-emerged as an option and that U.S. officials were communicating with Iran.
“There’s a military exit where we just keep going just the way we are, and we can even make it a heavier dose, and it’s knocking out everything they have,” Trump told reporters Friday. “Or there’s a smarter strategy that you make a deal. And they want to make a deal.”
Trump administration officials said that Gulf nations—including Oman, whose diplomats visited Tehran on Friday—are trying to revive diplomacy. Qatar is also involved, one of the officials said.
Gulf states aren’t the only ones conferring with the White House. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet with Trump in Washington on Tuesday. The Israeli leader said in a statement on Sunday that he plans to discuss “all pending issues,” which he said will include “the situation in Iran.”
The Israeli and the U.S. militaries have participated in the attacks on Iran, but Israel has refrained from striking the country since June at Trump’s request. The Trump administration hasn’t said whether Israel would participate in fresh strikes if the U.S. renewed a major air campaign against Iran, but some U.S. officials said that might be an option.
Write to Michael R. Gordon at michael.gordon@wsj.com , Meridith McGraw at Meridith.McGraw@WSJ.com , Shelby Holliday at shelby.holliday@wsj.com and Lara Seligman at lara.seligman@wsj.com
