July 2025 is expected to be significantly warmer than usual across Southeast Europe—including Greece—according to a comprehensive set of long-range forecasts compiled by the Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Commission.

Based on a statistical analysis of 400 forecast scenarios, the majority (93%) indicate that the region’s average temperature will exceed historical norms, using the 1993–2016 period as a reference. These forecasts were issued in early June and are now being highlighted by Greece’s weather service, meteo.gr.

High Probability of Elevated Temperatures

The forecast breakdown reveals the following likelihoods for deviations from average July temperatures in Southeast Europe:

  • 42% chance of an increase between 0 and 1°C
  • 41% chance of an increase between 1 and 2°C
  • 10% chance of an increase above 2°C
  • Only 7% of scenarios suggest a slight cooling between 0 and -1°C

Overall, the average projected deviation from the 400 scenarios stands at +1.04°C.

These projections align with a broader trend across Europe, where above-average temperatures are expected continent-wide. The highest deviations are forecast for Central and Eastern Europe, indicating widespread heat across much of the continent.

Forecasts Backed by Global Expertise

This climate outlook is based on data from eight major international meteorological centers, including:

  • ECMWF (Europe)
  • UKMO (United Kingdom)
  • Meteo-France (France)
  • JMA (Japan)
  • NCEP (United States)
  • DWD (Germany)
  • CMCC (Italy)
  • BOM (Australia)

All data was processed through the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the EU’s flagship climate data initiative.

A Word of Caution

While these projections indicate a strong trend toward a hotter July, experts stress that long-range forecasts carry a degree of uncertainty. These models are meant to highlight general climate tendencies over monthly or seasonal scales.

Local and daily weather conditions may still vary significantly due to the influence of short-term weather systems. As such, the actual experience on the ground in specific areas of Greece—or elsewhere—may differ from the broader trend.

Past Predictions vs Reality

Looking back, the forecast for May 2025 predicted a warming trend of +1.03°C for Southeast Europe. However, the observed average deviation turned out to be -0.20°C, a value that only had a 14% probability in the original forecast model. This underlines the variability and complexity involved in long-term climate prediction.

What This Means for Greece

For residents and tourists in Greece, this July could bring extended periods of heat, possibly affecting travel, agriculture, and energy consumption. Travelers should prepare accordingly, and locals may need to brace for potential heatwaves, as seen in previous summers.

As always, it is advisable to stay updated with local weather services for day-to-day forecasts and alerts.

Source: OT