Μake us preferred on Google A powerful El Niño weather pattern could lead to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide from extreme heat over the six months through February 2027, according to researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.
The researchers estimate that the number of extremely hot days during the period will be 44% higher than in normal years, with the resulting health impacts expected to vary significantly across regions.
Nigeria is projected to record the highest number of additional heat-related deaths, at around 31,400, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600.
The Sahel region of Africa, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad, is expected to account for about 66,800 additional deaths over the six-month period.
Southeast Asia Also Faces Higher Heat Risks
Researchers estimate that the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia could collectively experience another 19,400 deaths linked to excess heat between September 2026 and February 2027.
The potential death toll could rise further if the El Niño pattern continues into 2027.
Northern Hemisphere countries including India and Pakistan could face particular risks during their summer months if the weather pattern persists.
The Climate Impact Lab described this year’s El Niño as a “postcard from the future,” saying it offers a preview of temperatures that could become normal within a few decades.
Researchers Urge Immediate Action
The researchers said emergency response measures should be concentrated in regions facing the highest risks of heat-related mortality in the coming months.
“This report allows decision makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months,” said Michael Greenstone, an economist at the University of Chicago and co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab.
The projections cover the period from September 2026 through February 2027 and are based on the expected increase in extreme heat associated with this year’s El Niño.
