Μake us preferred on Google The “calm waters” have grown murky. And for no real reason.
A year ago, Greece announced the “marine parks” within its jurisdiction, as it was required to do by the European Union. And Turkey has now responded with two marine parks “of its own” in the northern Aegean and off Kastellorizo.
I don’t suppose anyone will be taking a stroll through either one of them.
But behind the declaration lies the posturing: Turkey is claiming titles of co-ownership in the Aegean and asserting itself as a regional power in the eastern Mediterranean.
Obviously, as a coastal country, it is entitled to something, but I don’t see anyone queuing up to grant Ankara the role it wants. Nor does Turkey have the capability to impose it.
There is no doubt that, due in part to Trump and in part to the Mecca agreement, the self-confidence of the megalomaniac and arrogance of the upstart have reappeared of late in Ankara. But neither the Aegean nor the eastern Mediterranean is at risk of a new Ottoman occupation.
Erdogan noted in passing that joining the European Union is not his priority. No problem. Nor is Turkey’s accession a priority for Europe.
Truth be told, it’s not even on the table. They’ve been sidelined from the armament programs, too.
Of course, Turkey is a force to be reckoned with, both strategically and militarily. It reminds the world of this at every opportunity, Erdogan boasts about it, and Trump applauds it.
But does this make it a regional enforcer? Not in the slightest. And I don’t think anyone considers that to be operationally feasible.
Obviously, there will be an element of uncertainty until the Greek armament program is complete—yet another repercussion of the disastrous delays in getting it underway and the idiotic questioning of the need for it.
There is also, perhaps, the temptation of a conflict before that rearmament is complete.
But it is anything but certain that Turkey would embark on such a perilous adventure. Nor is it certain that Ankara will be encouraged into cowboy antics by an agreement with two countries (Saudi Arabia and Pakistan) that have shown minimal interest in the Aegean and the Mediterranean.
And who would be even less interested in getting involved in an adventure that doesn’t concern them.
Still, the “calm waters” have grown murky. And it’s hard to see them running clear again, as long as Turkey continues to harbor grandiose ambitions.
So I don’t know if it will conquer Jerusalem (as it is threatening to do) or the Dodecanese (as it has implied it will). Or even if it will attempt to do either.
But for now, I am gladdened by the news that some 1.5 million Turks enjoyed their summer holidays on the Greek islands, and that their visits are up by 20-30% in 2026
Geography has its upsides too. Especially when you don’t get to choose your neighbor.
