Μake us preferred on Google Latin America is expected to experience a severe El Niño weather pattern between October and December, a development that could deepen agricultural supply disruptions already caused by conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz, according to a senior United Nations official.
Máximo Torero, chief economist at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), told Reuters that the region faces a “double blow” from extreme weather and reduced supplies of fertilizers and hybrid seeds, which have been affected by the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Iran war.
“There is a high probability that this will be an intense El Niño — like the one in 2015,” Torero said.
Uneven Impact Across the Region
According to Torero, El Niño’s effects are expected to vary significantly across Latin America.
In Peru, the northern coast is likely to face flooding while the country’s highlands experience water shortages. He said a similar pattern is expected between northern and southern Chile, highlighting the need for governments to prepare for opposite weather extremes at the same time.
Torero urged policymakers to develop strategies capable of addressing both flooding and drought simultaneously.
Focus on Preparedness
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center recently estimated there is an 81% probability of a “very strong” El Niño, potentially making it one of the most severe events recorded since 1950.
Torero emphasized that investing in preparedness offers significant economic benefits, saying every dollar spent on preventive measures generates a $7 return, compared with $3 for reactive responses after disasters occur.
He recommended prioritizing infrastructure improvements to reduce transportation disruptions, developing more resilient seed varieties, and accelerating harvests to minimize damage from severe storms.
High-Risk Areas Identified
The FAO has identified the Central American Dry Corridor, a tropical forest region along the Pacific coast, as one of the areas at greatest risk during the anticipated El Niño event.
Torero’s comments to Reuters underscore growing concerns that extreme weather could further strain agricultural production and food supplies across Latin America in the coming months, particularly as farmers continue to face disruptions in access to key agricultural inputs.
