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The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was on course to win Sunday’s, Sept. 20, state election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, more than doubling its share of the vote, according to a first projection released by public broadcaster ARD.

The AfD stood at 37%, up 20.3 points from the last election, followed by the Social Democrats (SPD) at 35.5%, down 4.1 points. The Left was projected at 7.5% (-2.4). The Christian Democrats (CDU) fell 7.8 points to 5.5%, their worst showing in the state since German reunification. The Greens also stood at 5.5% (-0.8), and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) reached 5%.

In Berlin, ARD’s first projection showed a clear lead for the Left, at 24.5%, up 12.3 points. The CDU followed with 20%, down 8.2 points. The AfD was third with 16% (+6.9), ahead of the Greens at 15% (-3.4) and the SPD at 12% (-6.4). The BSW was at 5%.

The projections point to a defeat for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives in both states. They come two weeks after the far right’s sweeping victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state election.