Μake us preferred on Google Greece’s population is projected to decline from 10.4 million in 2025 to 7.6 million by 2080, a loss of approximately 2.7 million people, or nearly one-quarter of the country’s current population, according to a new European Commission report.
The projections, published in the Commission’s 2027 Ageing Report – Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologies (Institutional Paper 347, November 2026), point to a prolonged demographic decline with significant implications for the labor market and economic growth.
The report, prepared by the Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, sets out demographic and macroeconomic assumptions for the long-term fiscal projections that will be included in the full Ageing Report, expected in spring 2027. Its forecasts are based on Eurostat’s EUROPOP2025 population projection scenario.
Population decline expected to continue through 2080
Greece’s population is projected to fall steadily over the coming decades, reaching 10.2 million in 2030, 9.7 million in 2040 and 9.2 million in 2050.
The decline is expected to continue, with the population falling to 8.6 million by 2060 and 8 million by 2070, before reaching 7.6 million in 2080.
Low fertility is identified as a key factor behind the trend. Greece’s fertility rate is projected at 1.20 children per woman in 2025, rising only to 1.45 by 2080. Both figures remain well below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 children per woman, which is needed to maintain a population size in the absence of migration.
Net migration is expected to remain positive, ranging from 13,000 to 31,000 people annually after 2030. However, these inflows are not projected to be sufficient to offset the natural population decline.
Working-age population to shrink as older age groups grow
The report projects an even more pronounced shift in Greece’s age structure.
The population aged 20 to 64 is expected to fall from 6 million to 3.8 million by 2080. Its share of the total population will consequently decline from 58% to 50%.
Meanwhile, people aged 65 and older are projected to account for 34.6% of the population in 2080, up from 23.9% in 2025. Their share is expected to peak at 34.9% in 2050.
The proportion of people aged over 80 is also projected to nearly double, rising from 7.2% to 14.9%.
Life expectancy and old-age dependency set to rise
Longer life expectancy is expected to reinforce the shift toward an older population.
By 2080, life expectancy at birth is projected to reach 90.1 years for women, up from 84.5 years in 2025, and 86.4 years for men, compared with 79.5 years.
The old-age dependency ratio — the number of people aged 65 and older relative to the population aged 20 to 64 — is projected to increase from 41.3 to 69.3.
The figures point to a Greece with fewer working-age residents and a substantially larger proportion of older people by the end of the projection period.
